AirBnb's Are In Trouble in Tn
The More I Dig The Worse It Looks
Holy smokes! For the last year, I’ve noticed Airbnb increasingly struggling. It was most evident by the rapid increase in Non-Owner Occupied Short Term Rentals for sale. But when you look under the hood, it was a story of rapidly growing supply. More listings of short term rentals for rent created more competition for the demand that didn’t grow nearly as much.
But throughout this rapid increase in supply, demand was still growing. Keyword → WAS
I’m now seeing evidence of what people have been suggesting for a while. That Demand is in fact shrinking. And the easiest way to identify this is Tn Revenue from the Hotel Tax. A massive decline in Revenue for August. The largest decline since COVID.
When we break out the 3 Largest markets for Airbnbs - they just happen to coincide with the largest growth in Active Listings. If this is true, then my very first video that I did on this subject is actually coming true. The second owner / airbnb insanity that started with Covid is beginning to unwind.
Now I did a video on Saturday and this is still a developing story. A few of the questions I have (feel free to comment if you have a perspective):
Tn Dept of Revenue adjusted down last’s year numbers. This made July 2024 positive YoY when it should have been negative. It’s also distorting the annualized graph. I’m showing as being down ~$4M when it should be $6M. I’ve reached out to Tn Dept of Revenue for comment.
Cause? Is airbnb a key driver of the listing growth or are there other similarities happening all at once?
Will this impact the housing market as a whole, or is this confined to just Airbnb’s.