Happy Monday, with the swing in mortgage rates, and uncertainty about the economy, I’m quite surprised that the Greater Nashville area has stabilized in Prices, Inventory, and Close Volume. Even when we look at contracts, it suggests January prices, close volume are stable too. Hard not to see a spring where volume picks up YoY. Prices are less certain, but even those seem to be dropping in a more seasonal pattern for now.
GNR should be releasing their data points soon and this is what I expect them to post for Single Family Homes:
(small variances possible depending on exact timing of pull)
Median Sales Price: $473 Flat/Up <1% MoM and down ~5% from last year’s peak of $500K (May 2022), and Flat YoY. Prices going into January continue to look down but not much. I predict ~$460-465K down ~2% MoM but will be up ~2-4% YoY. December and January are odd months because of the push/pull of getting deals closed, so It’s a bit harder to parse out noise than the rest of the year.
Inventory: 5,900 (Active Listings + Under Contract - Showing) vs last year 5,837 - inventory as reported will show a small increase YoY and down ~13% MoM. This dramatic decrease from last month has to do with end of year expirations and is normal.
Close Volume: ~2,025 flat from last year’s 2,028, Month over Month up ~8% from 1,868 in November. This is the first month where close volume has normalized YoY. Given that contract volume is up, it’s apparent to me that the housing market is moving into 2024 on a much more stable footing than last year. January volume is expected to be the first YoY increase over a year.
Links: Below are links for paid subscribers: Assumable FHA listings, NHI Neighborhood Tracker (free non-update version here), and the full list of losses from my last YT video.
Paid Links Below: