Happy Tuesday,
GNR should be releasing their data points soon and this is what I expect them to post for Single Family Homes:
The Median Price for a Single Family Home is rising significantly. Though we are seeing higher active listings, the last few days have showed strength not weakness. A lot of the national trends are pointing to more listings and softer spring, so it’s possible that March could be the peak price for the year. However, right now I’m not seeing the listing explosion I’m hoping will happen.
(small variances possible depending on exact timing of pull)
Median Sales Price - $478K:
Up ~4% MoM / Up ~6% YoY.
Down 4% from 2022 peak of $500K (May 2022)
Forecast: Prices going into March will continue to move up ~$480-$485K. This could be the highest median price since July 2022.
Inventory:
~5,849 (Active Listings + Under Contract - Showing) vs last year 5,827 - inventory as shown is basically flat. However, there is more to the story to explain what’s happening with prices.
Active listings over $1M for Single Family Up 20%.
Part of what’s putting upward pressure on prices is the lack of inventory under $700K. Lower than last year.
Close Volume:
~1,757 flat from last year’s 1,742, Month over Month up 16% from 1,514 in January. March close volume is likely to be down, but when we look at leading indicators, it’s very possible demand could be up YoY in the next two weeks.
Demand → 7% Not Slowing Contract Volume
We are well into 7% mortgage rates and we are seeing strength as contracts continue to be up week over week even when last year it was dropping. 7% is not doing what it used to do.
This is a bit dated but it shows what 7% did in 2023.
One of the drivers: Williamson County, Nashville’s wealthiest area up 18% YoY.
I posted this two weeks ago on my youtube channel and we hit the 12 month high of $479K
But here is another view (less formatted) that shows prices could plateau for now, but likely they break through July 2023’s high before they do.
Thanks for reading!
Paid Links below: New Build Map, Assumable FHA Listings, Days on Market Map, Neighborhood Data Tracker