Happy Tuesday,
GNR should be releasing their data points soon and this is what I expect them to post for Single Family Homes:
(small variances possible depending on exact timing of pull)
Median Sales Price:
$460K Flat/down ~2% MoM and down ~8% from 2022 peak of $500K (May 2022), and up ~2% YoY. Prices going into February continue to look stable and likely bouncing up to $470s.
Inventory:
~5,793 (Active Listings + Under Contract - Showing) vs last year 6,083 - inventory as reported will show a small decrease YoY and down flat/down MoM.
Active listings over $1M have increased 34%.
That’s wild. This makes the decrease more pronounced when looking at inventory under $1M,
Here’s a wide open pull for active listings in Greater Nashville over the past 13 months. (*this includes condos too and excludes under contract - showing so it’s a little different than what would show in GNR)
Close Volume:
~1,515 up 7% from last year’s 1,414, Month over Month down 25% from 2,011 in December. The big MoM drop is common as there are a lot of closings at the end of the year. The big takeaway is this is the first time since November 2021 that closed volume is up. If you’ve been following my channel I forecasted this using contract volume. February closings will be uncertain as the contract volume is starting to drop when compared to last year.
This is the forecast showing January Closed Volume would be UP.
But Contract Volume suggests transactions could be lower going into Feb/Mar.
Thanks for reading! Paid Subscriber Link for FHA assumption below. I’m doing some tweaks to my data tool. It’s still in building phase will release another link soon.