Happy Tuesday, GNR should be releasing their data points soon and this is what I expect them to post for Single Family Homes:
(small variances possible depending on exact timing of pull)
Median Sales Price: $470 Flat/Down <1% MoM and down ~6% from last year’s peak of $500K (May 2022), and up ~2% YoY. One interesting note is that prices remaining steady even as mortgage rates have dropped almost 1%. Last month I said it was hard to imagine it continues but it’s continuing. Forecasting prices this month is more difficult given the end of year closings and concessions are not clear. But trend over the last few days suggests that prices could remain in $470s.
Inventory: 6,837 (Active Listings + Under Contract - Showing) vs last year 7,002 - inventory as reported will show a decrease YoY and down ~3% MoM.
Close Volume: ~1,895 down 5% from last year’s 1,992, Month over Month down ~10% from 2,106 in October. The YoY drop is significant, because last year November was already a deep freeze, so another 5% is dramatic.
Contract volume is in the 1700s (very low) suggesting that December closed volume could be down YoY; however, given the uncertainty around end of year, I’m less confident in my forecast, but I would think somewhere 1,800-2,000 closing.
New Builds look to be closer 28% of transaction volume vs last year at this time running closer to 21%. We are also seeing new build median price trending down ~7% from last year.
New Build Fire Sale? Is this what a new build fire sale looks like? Lennar sold their last three properties in Durham farms for well below the going Sales Price Per Ft:
Paid Links: Assumable, Maps/Neighborhood Analysis